Bayesian Analysis of the Sudanese Immigrant Youth Crime Rates and the “Likelihood” of Committing Violent Offence than an Australian-Born

Atemthii D. Dau


This paper presents a mixed method of inquiry into most of the public notions, shaping the Sudanese immigrant community’s perception Australia wide. Firstly, a qualitative review regarding two remarks by Australian public figures will be considered and analyzed; and secondly, Bayesian analysis (BA) will be considered to analyze the randomness of the crimes: BA, is a highly predictive methodological tool used in a wide range of applications. For example, in predicting of crimes based on prior occurrences of an offence or groups of offences. Thus, the Bayesian analysis considers the hypothesized relationship between ‘Ethnicity and Criminality’; the emphasis is on the recorded Crime figures involving immigrant youth of the Sudanese-born residing in the state of Victoria. The figures are drawn mainly from the Australian statistical agencies and media sources; the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media reports, community’s prison population (CPP) and the overall Sudanese immigrant population in Australia (SIPA); comparative considerations with the overall Australian population (APP) and the Australian-born prison population (ABPP) from the years 2006 to 2007 will be looked into. The study concludes by suggesting the policy implication of this findings and future research directions.


Bayesian analysis, Ethnicity, Criminality, Sudanese immigrant youth, Crime rates.

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ISSN: 1929-4409