Socioeconomic Development: Search For Optimal Models For Forecasting Inflationary Processes

Mikhail Samuilovich  Gasparian; Irina Anatolievna  Kiseleva; Valeriy Aleksandrovich  Titov; Nikita Aleksandrovich  Sysoev; Elena Nikolaevna  Chernysheva

doi:10.6000/1929-4409.2021.10.55

Authors

Mikhail Samuilovich Gasparian Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Irina Anatolievna Kiseleva Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Valeriy Aleksandrovich Titov Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Nikita Aleksandrovich Sysoev Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Elena Nikolaevna Chernysheva Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-4409.2021.10.55

Keywords:

Inflation, inflation forecasting, models, risks

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the forecasting models for inflationary processes. The monetarist approach to inflation has been discussed in the article, and the inflation forecasting tools have been classified. Various inflation forecasting models have been studied, namely, one-factor models, Phillips-curve-motivated forecasts, vector autoregressive models, and dynamic models of general equilibrium. Comparative characteristics of the quality of the inflation forecasting models have been provided.

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