Projections of Energy Use and Carbon Emissions for Bangkok, Thailand

Aumnad Phdungsilp

doi:10.6000/1929-7092.2017.06.24

Authors

Aumnad Phdungsilp Engineering Management Graduate Program, College of Innovative Technology and Engineering, Dhurakij Pundit University, Bangkok, Thailand

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2017.06.24

Keywords:

CO2 emissions, Energy-savings, Energy modeling, Low-carbon city, Scenario analysis

Abstract

Cities around the world have developed innovative plans and strategies to reduce rampant and uncontrolled energy use and CO₂ emissions. It is not surprising that many cities have adopted long-term emission reduction goals. However, a detailed analysis of energy use and the resulting carbon emissions are rare in developing countries. This paper presents historical trends of energy demand and energy-related CO₂ emissions for Bangkok, Thailand. The CO₂ emissions account for the use of fossil fuels only. It also presents the projections of energy use and CO₂ emissions from 2010 to 2050. Using a bottom-up energy model and scenario analysis, the paper employs a Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system to simulate four sectors in Bangkok. The results identified by the BAU (business-as-usual) scenario indicate that total energy is expected to reach 54,560 kilotonne of oil equivalent (ktoe) with 191 million tonne CO₂ (Mt-CO₂) by 2050. Under the alternative scenario, if all policy interventions are implemented simultaneously, the potential for energy-savings and reduced CO₂ emissions in 2050 are estimated to be 32,120 ktoe and 106.19 Mt-CO₂. Other international cities may wish to apply the strategies and analytical approaches presented in this paper for developing appropriate policies and measures in their own jurisdictions.

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