A Multistate Markov Model Based on CD4 Cell Count for HIV/AIDS Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART)

Gurprit Grover, Adesh Kumar Gadpayle, Prafulla Kumar Swain


Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) by using a multistate Markov model to estimate transition intensities and transition probabilities among various states (transient as well as absorbing) of the AIDS patients. A total of 580 AIDS patients were included in this study who are undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy treatment in the ART centre in New Delhi during the period of April 2004 to April 2011. The patients are classified in different states on the basis of their available CD4 cell counts. The authors also estimated the mean sojourn time and total length of stay in each state before absorption, and also examined the effects of explanatory variables (i.e Age, Sex, Mode of transmission) on the rates of transition using Cox’s proportional hazard model.


AIDS, ART, CD4 count, Cox PH Model, Multistate Markov Model, PLHA

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ISSN: 1929-6029