EDITORIAL: Economic Growth and Convergence: Analyses for the Mexican States
Pages i-ii
Vicente German-Soto

Published: 06 May 2016

Testing Stochastic Convergence among Mexican States: A Polynomial Regression Analysis
Pages 36-47
Vicente German-Soto and Natalia Salazar Garza

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.04

Published: 06 May 2016

Abstract: Another look on the economic convergence among Mexican states is offered examining whether they are approaching along 1940-2010. Methodology is based on polynomial regressions, a method that determines whether predictions can be significantly improved by increasing the complexity of the fitted straight-line model. Estimates from a set of polynomial terms are a theoretical approximation to income differentials, so it constitutes an adequate frame to analyze if different initial conditions tend to diminish in the long-run. We calibrate for each economy the polynomial equation of best adjustment supported in information criteria and a strategy of backward iterative elimination. Empirical results are according with the stochastic convergence, but in a relationship where it changed after trade opening, poorer states are diverging and richer states are converging. A focalized regional policy is necessary with the aim to correct the biases produced in a context where some regions are lagging while others more are advancing.

Is the Economic Convergence of the Mexican States Possible? Estimates for the 1940-2013 Period
Pages 48-58
Mario Camberos C. and Joaquín Bracamontes N.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.05

Published: 06 May 2016

Abstract: In this paper we study β-convergence: absolute and conditional, also σ convergence, using cross-state regression models, based in a long term period of time for the Federated States of Mexico. When absolute convergence is estimated (Solow Model, 1956) we found the negative sign expected but the result is not statistically reliable; while, estimates for decades only show absolute convergence for the period of 1960-1970, known with the term of “Mexican Miracle”, a third regression including population growth rate and physical capital investment per capita, variables as considered by Solow models, confirm that there is not absolute convergence like the first result obtained. The estimate including human capital index (HCI) and human development index (HDI 2), shows a number of outliers, suggesting the introduction of proxy variables which capture the political effects and explore conditional convergence. When panel heteroskedastic is considerate, convergence is observed, but β 2% any case was estimated.

Pair-Wise Approach to Test the Regional Convergence Hypothesis in Mexico
Pages 59-68
Domingo Rodríguez-Benavides, José Carlos Trejo García and Miguel Ángel Mendoza González

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.06

Published: 06 May 2016

Abstract: This paper assesses the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita convergence of the 32 Mexican States in the period 1940-2010 through the method proposed by Pesaran (2007), which is based on the convergence stochastic criterion. One of the main advantages of this method is not only on a model of leading economy, also on a pair-wise approach that considers all possible gap pairs of per capita logarithms of all the Mexican States analyzed in the sample. According to this method, all the differences or output gaps of the States must be stationary around a constant mean. Most results provide evidence against the hypothesis of convergence especially for the total sample from 1940 to 2010 and the first period from 1940 to 1985. However, mixed evidence of this hypothesis was observed in the second period from 1986 to 2010. Additionally, the test results applied to a set of States considered as the richest suggest these findings are not due to the unique behavior of these States.

Inequality and Spatial Convergence in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, 1989-2010
Pages 69-83
Luis Quintana-Romero, Jaime A. Prudencio-Vázquez and Carlos Salas Páez

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.07

Published: 06 May 2016

Abstract: The analysis of inequality and polarization patterns between by regions of a national economy is central to ascertaintheir possibilities of future economic development. In this work we study such patterns in municipalities and boroughs of Mexico City Metropolitan Area (Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de Mexico, ZMCM). The evolution of inequality and polarization in this important area of Mexico is studied with new proposals of measurement using spatially conditioned indexes and through a dynamic transition analysis. The results confirm that the territorial inequality has grown among the municipalities and boroughs that integrate the ZMCM. Moreover, this phenomenon coincides with an increase of the polarization characterized by the formation of four subgroups or convergence clubs.