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Abstract - Personality Traits and Performance of Immigrant-Owned Small Businesses
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Abstract: Motivation: Immigrant entrepreneurs contribute to employment and the sustainable growth of host countries and both native and immigrant-owned enterprises should be included in the growth and employment strategy of a country. However, immigrant-owned small businesses face many challenges which impact on their performance and survival. The personality traits of immigrant entrepreneurs can influence the strategy adopted and implemented to improve business performance. Keywords: Personality traits, five-factor theory, small and medium enterprises, immigrants, performance. |
Abstract - Philippine Household Income Mobility Measurement and its Decomposition using a Pseudo-Longitudinal Panel Data
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Abstract: When economic growth does not translate into poverty reduction and it remains a challenge, it is crucial to examine income mobility since income is a measure of individual economic status or poverty status. To understand the role of economic growth on welfare when there is income mobility, this study measured the Philippine households’ income mobility utilizing pseudo-longitudinal panel data from the Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES) of 2003 to 2012. Using various income mobility indices such as chi-square, average jump index and Shorrocks mobility index, the results revealed that the households’ income movement was more mobile than expected. This means that the households’ income status improved through time, low-income rank moved to higher-income rank in a given income distribution. In addition, short-run income inequality was reduced by 87.30 percent (87.30%) when there was income mobility. The presence of income mobility in the country was mainly due to the transfer effect which indicates that households did not take the economic opportunities of economic growth to increase their economic status. Keywords: Economic status, income distribution, income inequality, income mobility, welfare. |
Abstract - Predicting Aggregate and State-Level US House Price Volatility: The Role of Sentiment
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Abstract: This paper examines the predictive ability of housing-related sentiment on housing market volatility for 50 states, District of Columbia, and the aggregate US economy, based on quarterly data covering 1975:3 and 2017:3. Given that existing studies have already shown housing sentiment to predict movements in aggregate and state-level housing returns, we use a k-th order causality-in-quantiles test for our purpose, since this methodology allows us to test for predictability for both housing returns and volatility simultaneously. In addition, this test being a data-driven approach accommodates the existing nonlinearity (as detected by formal tests) between volatility and sentiment, besides providing causality over the entire conditional distribution of (returns and) volatility. Our results show that barring 5 states (Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska), housing sentiment is observed to predict volatility barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution. As far as returns are concerned, except for California, predictability is observed for all of the remaining 51 cases. Keywords: Housing sentiment, housing market returns and volatility, higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, overall and regional US economy. |
Abstract - Possibility of SADC Monetary Union: Testing for Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies
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Abstract: There is consensus that fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated into a broader macroeconomic framework for sustainable monetary union. The Brexit scenario, and the debt problems of some European Union members has vindicated re-consideration of premises on which monetary unions are set-up. Southern African Development Community (SADC) had mooted the idea of a monetary union, despite the Rand Common Currency Area not being successful. However, there has been little literature on coordination of fiscal and monetary policies within and across SADC countries. The aim of this study is to examine whether the key macroeconomic policies are coordinated in order to create a spring-board for a sustainable monetary union. The study employed panel data analysis techniques on 14 SADC countries. The Pooled Mean Group (PGM) method was applied to constrain the long-run coefficients to be identical, but allow the short-run coefficients and error variance to differ across groups. The application of PGM technique allows the study to control for heterogeneity across countries and the time dependence that exist on most macroeconomic series. The empirical results show that there is fiscal and monetary policies coordination amongst some SADC countries. However, cross-country differences on key macroeconomic fundamentals such debts, fiscal balances and money supply may hinder the formation of a monetary union and obstruct the economic survival initiatives for trade amongst member states. The paper concludes monetary union may naturally become necessary to facilitate cooperation and trade amongst countries once there exists shared goals. Keywords: Macroeconomic policy, policy coordination, International Finance, Economic Development, Monetary Union. |
Abstract - Predicting Distress in Islamic Banks: The Effectiveness of Capital Measures in CAMELS Framework
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Abstract: This study aims to identify key capital adequacy measures and other parameters that effectively predict distress in Islamic banks taking a panel of 65 banks from 13 countries between 2008-2017 using logistic regression model. The paper also intends to see whether simpler ratios perform better than more complex, risk weighted measures in predicting distress in these banks. A total of nine alternative capital and leverage indicators are used in the model that mainly rely on financial and accounting data, which are supplemented by the addition of market leverage for listed banks. In order to capture variability in cross country analysis and impact of economic conditions and shocks, the study also adds several macroeconomic indicators in the model. The results suggest that most of the standard CAMELS indicators are relevant for studying distress in Islamic banks. Further, it is shown that three other capital ratios – Tier 1, tangible common ratio and market leverage - are equally effective in studying Islamic bank failures. The findings, however, reflect that Basel III leverage ratio and other accounting-based ratios do not offer effective early warning signals of Islamic bank stress. Overall, equity based risk-weighted capital ratios offer a more robust framework of regulation and supervision in Islamic banks. Keywords: Early Warning System, Leverage Ratio, Bank Failure, Basel III, CAMELS, Risk-Based Capital, Regulation, Islamic Banks, Emerging Markets. |